2023 MLB Draft Lottery Odds

Twelve teams continue to compete in the postseason for a World Series title, while another 18 organizations look to the future, including where they might pick in the 2023 draft.

In the past, at the end of the regular season, a tough pass in the first-round order was possible based on the reverse order of positions. But thanks to the new collective bargaining agreement, there’s a new wrinkle in the game when it comes to the draft.

For the first time, the order of the first six draft picks will be decided by lottery rather than in reverse order of the previous year’s standings, with the lottery expected to take place at the winter meetings in San Diego in early December.

The teams with the three worst records in 2022 — the Nationals, A’s and Pirates — have the best chance (16.5 percent each) of landing the No. 1 overall pick in the lottery, though all 18 non-playoff teams have a chance to land it. Other teams have slump percentages in reverse order of their records, dropping to 0.23 percent for the non-playoff club with the highest winning percentage.

As in previous years, any tie in the regular-season record is broken by the previous year’s record, continuing each subsequent previous year’s record until the tie is broken.

No. 1 draft lottery odds for the pick

Teams receiving revenue-sharing payments cannot receive a lottery pick more than two years in a row, and those not receiving revenue-sharing payments cannot receive a top-six pick in consecutive drafts. Also, a club that is not eligible for the lottery cannot be selected higher than 10th overall.

The draft will be 20 rounds, and after the first round, non-season teams will select in reverse order of winning percentage. In all 20 rounds, playoff clubs will select in reverse order of their postseason finish (wild card losers, division series losers, championship series losers, World Series losers, World Series winner). Within each of those playoff groups, teams are ranked in reverse order of revenue-sharing position and winning percentage.

With six picks, MLB’s lottery stretches deeper than any major US sports league. The NBA’s first four picks and the NHL’s first two are subject to a lottery, while none in the NFL.

If the Nationals get the No. 1 pick, they’ll be the first time they’ve picked Stephen Strasburg since Bryce Harper in 2010, when they went 1-1. Rick Monday became the first draft pick in major league history with the second-best odds to win the lottery with the A’s, last in 1965 with the No. 1 got the exam. The Pirates took Henry Davis No. 1 overall in the 2021 draft. The Reds have never had the first pick, most recently finishing 2nd in both 2016 (Nick Sensel) and 2017 (Hunter Green). A top-five pick in lottery odds, the Royals are 1-1 in team history when they took Luke Hochewer in 2006, but the three-time no. They chose 2. 2019.

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It’s too early to know who will be the top pick in 2023, but MLB Pipeline recently placed Indiana prep outfielder Max Clark at the top. List of high school opportunities and Louisiana State outfielder Dylann Cruz at No. 1 College list. A lot will change between now and next July, when the 2023 All-Star Game will be held in Seattle.

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