CNN
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The New Hampshire Republican presidential primary appears to be in the running Former President Donald Trump will loseA step A new CNN poll The University of New Hampshire held it after Trump scored 30 points in Iowa's caucuses last week.
Trump has 50% support among Republican primary voters in the Granite State, while his closest rival, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, has 39%. Both have gained supporters since the last CNN/UNH poll in early January — Trump's 39% to Haley's 32% — as the field of major contenders narrowed from six candidates to three. Both Trump and Haley now have their highest support in the UNH poll since 2021. But Haley's sharp gains since late last summer haven't been enough to catch Trump, as the gap between them has widened back to double digits.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantisA frontrunner in UNH's early 2023 polling race, but recently scaled back his efforts in the state, he has just 6% of the polls, well below the 10% minimum support required by Republican rules to win delegates there.
For Trump's opponents, New Hampshire has long been a fixture on the early primary calendar, giving him the best shot at derailing his bid for a third consecutive GOP presidential nomination. It was the only primary state in which Trump consistently polled without a majority of support, and voters were often more open to his rivals. But this latest poll suggests that Trump's popularity among the GOP base and the commitment of his supporters outweigh his challenge.
New Hampshire's traditionally independent and moderate primary voter turnout, compared to other states where candidates are running ahead of Super Tuesday, is part of what makes the state stand out among some Trump rivals. And Haley has won those groups.
He has 58% support among those who are undeclared (New Hampshire's independent voters) and plan to vote in the GOP primary, and 71% among those who consider themselves ideologically moderate. He leads Trump among voters with college degrees (50% Haley to 38% Trump). But each of these groups makes up a minority of GOP primary voters in New Hampshire: 47% are unregistered, 33% have at least a college degree, and 3 in 10 describe themselves as moderate.
Trump has solidified his support on the larger side of each of those groups. He has the support of 67% of registered Republicans, 71% of conservatives and 55% of those without a college degree. Among Trump supporters, 88% say they have definitely decided to support Haley, compared to 74% of Haley supporters. That is, 45% of voters are strongly Trump supporters, and 30% are even. Haley supporters decided.
With Tuesday's primary just days away, 1 in 5 Republican primary voters say they have not yet chosen their choice. That group now broadly supports Haley: 51% say they support her, 28% support Trump, and 14% support DeSantis.
Broadly speaking, New Hampshire's Republican primary voters expect Trump to win on Tuesday (70% think he will carry the day, though 36% of Haley supporters do), and many say he will be satisfied. than feel that way about the party's presidential nominee Haley or DeSantis (61% say they would be interested or satisfied if Trump wins the nomination, compared with 54% who say the same about Haley or DeSantis).
Trump continues to be viewed more favorably than Haley or DeSantis among primary voters: 56% have a positive view of Trump, compared to 36% of Haley and 28% of DeSantis. He was the only one of the three remaining candidates to maintain a net positive favorability rating throughout the past year, while both Haley and DeSantis finished their campaigns in negative territory for the Granite State (net negative 11 points for DeSantis, negative 4 for Haley).
The state's Republican primary voters also have a broadly positive outlook on what Trump has actually done as president. Looking back on his first term, 70% of Republican primary voters say he helped the country more than he hurt it, 28% say he did more to hurt it, and 2% say he didn't during his time in office. Quite a difference.
The survey asked whether Trump would try — and succeed — on six things during the campaign, including building a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico and appointing a special counsel to “go after” President Joe Biden and his family. , dismantling the “deep state,” repealing Obamacare and replacing it with another health care law, ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, and reimposing a travel ban on seven Muslim-majority countries.
Majorities of GOP voters say Trump would succeed in accomplishing four of those six if he wins: building the wall (71% say he will definitely or will succeed in doing so), ending the war between Ukraine and Russia (59%), and lifting the travel ban (56%). ) reinstatement and hiring a lawyer to go after the Biden family (53%). Fewer see Trump as successful in eliminating the deep state (39%) or repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act (34%).
If Trump wins with a majority of New Hampshire Republican voters, he will at least re-enact the travel ban (58%) and appoint a special prosecutor to go after the Biden family (56%). wall (52%). But there are deep partisan divisions over views of his prospects for ending the war between Ukraine and Russia; 71% of Republicans think he will succeed in at least that effort, compared with 33% of independents and 8% of Democrats; 79% of Democrats say Trump is unlikely to even try to end the war. And few in any partisan stripe think he will repeal and replace the ACA (26% overall).
There is also a significant partisan divide over the chances of Trump trying or succeeding in appointing a special counsel to “go back.” Biden and his family. Almost all Democrats think he would try at least (90%), compared to two-thirds of independents and Republicans (63% each). Democrats are also more likely to see him succeed (64% say so), while only about half of Republicans (51%) or independents (47%) say the same.
Two-thirds of Democratic primary voters say they plan to write in Biden (63%). Biden has not filed to be on the state's primary ballot because the primary violates the Democratic National Committee's rules for the nominating process, but supporters have launched a write-in effort on his behalf. Almost all Democratic primary voters are aware of that effort; 91% said they had heard Biden would not participate in the poll before taking the survey. Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips has 10% support in the poll, matching his highest score in a CNN/UNH poll in the race, and author Marianne Williamson has 9% support, with 11% saying they would support someone else.
Nearly all Biden supporters, 92%, say they have decided to support him, compared to just 28% of those who support another candidate. A majority of Democratic primary voters say they would be at least satisfied with Biden as their party's nominee (70% say they would be interested or satisfied), but enthusiasm for Biden among Democratic primary voters (31%) is lower than enthusiasm for Trump. GOP side (46%).
However, 46% of Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire say Biden gives the party the best chance to win in 2024, 39% give Democrats the best chance, and 15% are unsure. . There is little agreement among those who say someone else would be better around who it might be. Phillips is most often cited as 28%, but a wide range of other names also emerge.
Most Democratic primary voters say Biden's tenure as president has helped the country more than hurt it (71% help, 16% hurt, 11% don't make a big difference).
But neither Biden nor Trump were seen by most New Hampshireites as helping the country during their respective presidencies. Overall, 55% of New Hampshire adults say a Trump presidency has hurt the country, and 51% say it has hurt Biden. There was not much overlap between the two groups. A total of only 8% said both men hurt more than helped, 1% said both helped more, 41% said Trump helped and Biden hurt, 35% said Trump hurt and Biden helped, 10% said Trump hurt, while Biden didn't make much of a difference.
The CNN New Hampshire poll Conducted online January 16-19 by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Results for the full sample of 2,348 New Hampshire adults, drawn from a probability-based panel, have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.0 percentage points. Republican and Democratic primary voters may have been identified through survey questions about their intention to vote. Results from 1,210 Republican primary voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. Results from 838 Democratic primary voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
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