California’s power grid could be tested like never before, officials warned Monday, as they urged the public to step up conservation efforts or face the prospect of losing power during a historic heat wave that hasn’t scorched the state.
The predicted energy load on California’s electric infrastructure is higher than what state officials expect to have on hand by Labor Day. Tuesday is expected to be even worse.
That’s when power demand will be at an all-time high, California Independent System Operator President and CEO Elliott Maincher said at a news conference Monday.
“The forecast for Tuesday is the highest it’s ever been,” he said. “Our goal right now is not to see that number.”
To keep demand from exceeding the state’s supply, Mainzer urged them to double or triple their energy conservation efforts from what they did in the early days of the historic heat wave.
State officials expect 48,817 megawatts of power to be needed on Monday, leaving the state with a shortfall of 2,000 to 4,000 megawatts, Mainzer said. He said the planned shortage created “the highest potential for rotating outages that we’ve seen so far this summer.”
The predicted shortage led grid operators to declare a Level 1 power emergency alert on Monday morning. They also announced a flex alert for the sixth day in a row, calling on consumers to reduce their electricity use. So far it’s worked, with California residents saving 600 to 700 megawatts in recent days.
State regulators on Monday extended the flex alert by one hour from 4 p.m. to 10 p.m., urging consumers to avoid turning on appliances, set thermostats at 78 degrees or higher and turn off all unnecessary lights during those peak hours.
By 2:30pm on Monday, the energy market will close and grid operators will have a better idea of what to expect for the evening hours. If resources run low, energy regulators can initiate a Level 2 emergency, which would dip into the state’s emergency power reserves, last-minute imports and power from generators. He estimated that the state has about 3,000 megawatts as backup, which provides a small “interval”.
If a Level 3 is reached and a power outage is required, state regulators will ask utilities to determine the best way to shut down their utility, which would be to rotate systems around, usually for a short period of time, Mainzer said.
“A blackout is possible today,” he said.
On Tuesday, the state predicted an all-time load of 51,000 MW. The peak power load drained by Californians on July 24, 2006 was 50,270 MW.
Fortunately, the Pacific Northwest avoids the heat, which has allowed California to import some power from that region. Utilities have agreements to share power in emergencies, Mainzer said.
California grid operators are monitoring wildfires to make sure they don’t damage generators or transmission wires. Many generators are already offline, tightening power supplies.
This week’s heat wave is expected to last until Friday, with daytime temperatures forecast to be 10-20 degrees above normal. By early Monday morning, around 3 a.m., temperatures had dropped further into the 80s to 90s in some inland parts of the Bay Area. The National Weather Service extended an extreme heat warning and heat advisory until 8 p.m. Thursday, making conditions dangerous for those vulnerable to heat and those without cooling or hydration.
State officials recommend pre-cooling their homes with air conditioning during the day, when electricity demand is not high.
Severin Borenstein, an energy professor at UC Berkeley and a member of ISO’s governing body, noted on Twitter that the public may not need that much to avoid blackouts.
“Today looks hard and tomorrow looks really hard,” Borenstein Tweeted. “But reducing the system requirement by 10% would almost eliminate any concern.”
Matthias Gaffney is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: [email protected] Twitter: @mgafni
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